The 2019 NFL preseason gets underway in Canton, Ohio, on Thursday with the annual Hall of Fame game. The Denver Broncos will face the Atlanta Falcons at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium, ahead of Saturday’s enshrinement ceremony for the Hall of Fame class of 2019.
Sharps have shown interest in the Broncos-Falcons exhibition opener. An early line of pick ’em has been driven hard all the way to Denver -3. The public doesn’t typically bet preseason action prior to game day. So we have very strong evidence that sharps like Denver at anything below a field goal.
If you were with us last year, you know Jonathan Von Tobel of “The Edge” (weekdays from 3-6 p.m. on VSiN.com and SiriusXM 204) and I put our heads to together to deduce how the composite sum of market influences has rated all 32 NFL teams on a neutral-field scale. We do this using point spreads, adjusting a standard three points for home-field advantage. If the home team in a regular-season game is favored by a field goal, then we consider the teams dead even.
Both teams are expected to protect their projected starters and rely on reserves for much of the game, but second- and third-string football is (arguably) better than no football at all.
The Jets are currently -3¹/₂ at home against Buffalo. Again here, the hook influences our assessment. If the teams were dead even, the line would be -3. It’s not, so we put the Jets one higher than the Bills at 76-75. There is some media optimism for both of those teams this season. Maybe 77-76 will turn out to have been a better read, or even 78-77 if everything falls right. Global futures boards are more skeptical than the media.
VSiN will update these throughout the season. And, if preseason injuries knock stars out of the September mix, we’ll update sooner.